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“The baseline projection rests on key assumptions about the fallout from the pandemic,” the IMF writes in its official release. “In economies with declining infection rates, the slower recovery path in the updated forecast reflects persistent social distancing into the second half of 2020; greater scarring (damage to supply potential) from the larger-than-anticipated hit to activity during the lockdown in the first and second quarters of 2020; and a hit to productivity as surviving businesses ramp up necessary workplace safety and hygiene practices. For economies struggling to control infection rates, a lengthier lockdown will inflict an additional toll on activity.” The IMF also warns of a potential worsening of financial conditions, stating that the “recent rebound in financial market sentiment appears disconnected from shifts in underlying economic prospects.”
The different phases of economic cycles toss economies around the world. However, it’s interesting to see that these top economies don’t budge easily from the positions they hold. When compared to the top 20 economies of 1980, 17 are still present on the list, which means only three new entrants.